Alan Turing Exhibition at the Heinz Nixdorf MuseumsForum Exhibition at the Heinz Nixdorf MuseumsForum focuses on mathematician Alan Turing A close up view of an enigma deciphering machine from German Navy displayed in the exhibition ‘Eminent Enigmatic’ at the Heinz Nixdorf Museumsforum (HNF) in Paderborn, Germany, 10 January 2012. The HNF is presenting the special […]

Bayesian analysis Bayesian analysis, a method of statistical inference (named for English mathematician Thomas Bayes) that allows one to combine prior information about a population parameter with evidence from information contained in a sample to guide the statistical inference process. A prior probability distribution for a parameter of interest is specified first. The evidence is […]

Probability Theory: Bayes’s theorem Bayes’s theorem used for evaluating the accuracy of a medical test [Credit: Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.]Consider now the defining relation for the conditional probability P(An|B), where the Ai are mutually exclusive and their union is the entire sample space. Substitution of P(An)P(B|An) in the numerator of equation (4) and substitution of the […]

Bayes’s theorem Bayes’s theorem, in probability theory, a means for revising predictions in light of relevant evidence, also known as conditional probability or inverse probability. The theorem was discovered among the papers of the English Presbyterian minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes and published posthumously in 1763. Related to the theorem is Bayesian inference, or Bayesianism, […]

Thomas Bayes Thomas Bayes, (born 1702, London, England—died April 17, 1761, Tunbridge Wells, Kent), English Nonconformist theologian and mathematician who was the first to use probability inductively and who established a mathematical basis for probability inference (a means of calculating, from the frequency with which an event has occurred in prior trials, the probability that […]

Bayesian Statistical Reasoning an inferential, predictive and decision-making paradigm for the 21st century Professor David Draper, PhD Professor Draper gives examples of Bayesian inference, prediction and decision-making in the context of several case studies from medicine and health policy. There will be points of potential technical interest for applied mathematicians, statisticians, and computer scientists. Broadly […]